What will the future bring ? When will it rain this season ? Will I it be a good season with much rain and I can use fertilizer and get a good yield. Or will it be a dry seasons and I need to invest in dry-resistant crop seed and seeding later ?

This are only some of the concerns smallholders have facing the insecurities and changing weather induced by climate change. To cope with the impact of climate change smallholders need useable and reliable information about the climate, the weather and the risks.  This allows farmers to make informed and smart decisions on their livelihood activities to adapt to climate change. Providing all information and resources necessary to make climate smart decision is called climate service. Climate Service are the foundation for decisions of smallholders on adaptation activites. Therefore Climate Services are key to built climate resilience in local communities.

But who knows what the weather will be ? Many elders, holding local indigenous knowledge know how the weather will be. They can predict and forecast the weather in their local communities.

It’s written in the stars:

Observing nature to predict the weather

It’s written in the stars. So they just have to observe it. By observing indicators as plants, animals, wind, clouds, stars and the moon many communities have the knowledge to predict the upcoming weather for their village. It is not witchcraft, it is like science: Learning from observation. In Lushoto villages the people learned that a large amount of butterflies is a sign for a good rain season (Vuli). Exstenive flowering of mango trees predict a bad and dry rain season. Nature reacts highly sensitive to changes of weather conditions as moisture, temperature, wind speed etc. Communities observed nature for generations and grow therefore the knowledge to interpret the change and signs to predict the weather.  

Aim for the best:The best-available knowledge by integrating indigenous knowledge into climate services

But the practice of weather forecasting based on indigenous knowledge start to get forgotten. Elders die before passing on there knowledge. Therefore we need now to conserve and document indigenous knowledge on weather forecasting. It has a high value for local communities in order to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Currently scientific weather forecast are often not sufficiently locally specific and downscaled to village level. The Tanazanian Meterological Authorithy (TMA) can predict the weather for larger areas on district level but predicting it on village-level is still a gap and challenges. Indigenous knowledge can bridge this gap. Bringing together  weather forecast based on science and indigenous knowledge allows to get the best-available knowledge.

Level-up: Finding a way-forward for enhanced Climate Services in Tanzania

On a conference of climate service stakeholders in Tanzania, facilitated by CAN TZ,  Prof. Henry Mahoo presented a case study from Luhsoto on how Indigenous Knowledge can be successfully integrated into Climate Services(Mahoo 2015). The best-practices and lessons-learnt from his research should inform the coordinate way-forward on climate services in Tanzania.

Challenges for Indigenous Knowledge on weather forecasting:

·       Loss of indicators: Due to climate change and other factors more and more biodiviersity is lost and threatened. IK relies highly on flaura & fauna observation.

·       Loss of IK sources: IK is mainly hold by elders and passed on oraly. The transition to younger generation is necessary to preserve IK.

·       Lack of documentation: IK is often undocumented which increase the risk of loose of IK.

·       IK is associated with mystical beliefs: Some communities and faith-based organizations associate IK with witchcraft pratices, which harm the credibility of IK.

Best-Practice: How to integrate Indigenous knowledge (IK) into climate services:

·       Documentation of IK:

·       Local indigenous forecasting groups: Three local IK forecasting groups were established.

·       Consensus forecasts: A consensus seasonal forecast was drafted in a participatory workshop as collaboration between IK forecasting groups and TMA.

·       Climate information flow system: Distribution channels of climate information where established, activating key stakeholders (e.g. churches,women groups, markets) and involving them in the information flow, to allow an easy access and uptake of climate information from smallholders.

Lessons-learnt:

·       Bottom-up: IK is highly diverse and embedded in complex local contexts. Therefore, a successful integration benefits form a bottom-up approach. The cooperation and co-production should emphasize the need of local communities and engage them form an early stage

·       Budget: Mainstream IK into budgets and policies. Include budget for IK integration into the District Agriculture Development Plans (DADP).

Read the full study:

Mahoo 2015, Working Paper 103.pdf (cgiar.org)